March Madness or March Predictability? The decline of Cinderella stories

By J. Ben Hayner | Staff writer

The following piece reflects my personal opinion and analysis on the current state of college basketball.

As I sit here on a Thursday night watching the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, I can’t help but mourn the loss of the sport’s most beloved character—the Cinderella.

To know them is to love them—a random school you’ve never heard of with players who will be average Joes like you and me after graduating.

But somehow, they do the unthinkable and upset a college basketball powerhouse with countless NBA prospects.

That’s why it’s called March Madness in the first place, but I’m afraid the days of madness are now few and far between.

Every single team in the Sweet 16 is from a power conference (SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12).

As No. 10 Arkansas fell to No. 3 Texas Tech, 85-83, in a heartbreaking overtime game early Friday morning, it marks the first time since 2019—and only the second time since 2009—that no team seeded higher than No. 5 will reach the Elite Eight.

And to make things worse, No. 12 seeds Colorado State and McNeese State were the highest-seeded mid-major teams with upsets in the first round.

This year, it just hasn’t felt the same, and in my opinion, the blame can be placed on two things ruining the sport—the transfer portal and NIL.

According to CBS Sports, transfers have accounted for 53% of the points in the NCAA Tournament this year.

On top of that, 11 teams in the Sweet 16 are led in scoring by transfers.

I’m all for college players being compensated for their name, image and likeness because they bring millions of dollars in revenue to their universities.

But at some point, there must be a limit on how many times these players can transfer schools.

“I’m also not a big fan of this transfer every year,” Auburn head coach Bruce Pearl said. “We’re teaching the kids to flee, not fight.”

The days of stories like Ja Morant at Murray State and CJ McCollum at Lehigh making names for themselves in the tournament and becoming NBA stars are over because, in today’s landscape, they would have already transferred to a bigger school.

The transfer portal opened Monday, March 24, while the NCAA Tournament won’t finish until the national championship on April 5.

The portal is out of control, and it’s driving legendary coaches like Arkansas head coach John Calipari insane.

“So Monday, we’re really preparing for a game, and we’re having individual meetings about, ‘Are you coming back? What are you doing?’” Calipari said.

Contact J. Ben Haynes at jamhaynes@augusta.edu.