COVID-19 numbers dropping, but pandemic may not be quite over yet
By Chris Rickerson | Staff writer
Cases of COVID-19 have dropped dramatically in the United States since peaks last spring and then in the winter, but we may not be completely out of the woods yet.
“I don’t think they are going to reinstate mask or social distancing, but there is going to be an uptick in cases in the summer and probably the fall,” said Augusta University Professor David Blake.
Blake is a professor in the Department of Neuroscience and Regenerative Medicine at AU. He has kept close statistical tabs on the pandemic and blogs about it almost every day. He says getting people vaccinated has driven down the number of cases.
On June 1, AU President Dr. Brooks A. Keel said that there were only two positive COVID-19 patients at the AU Medical Center. On June 15, AU Health was reporting three new cases with two inpatient cases. As of June 15, AU had no new student cases and only one new employee case.
The New York Times reported on June 14 that there were 12,845 new cases in the United States. By contrast, on January 8, there were 300,779 new cases in the country. Thus, the drop-off has been dramatic.
Due to the now low number of positive cases and the vaccination, AU decided to lift the mandatory mask requirement on campus.
“Mask are certainly weaker than vaccines are and everyone who wants the vaccine can get one,” Blake said. “I think the people vaccinated there’s not going to be more risk to walk around without mask, but the people who are unvaccinated and don’t have a prior infection are huge risks to people around them.”
Although Blake doesn’t think we are done with COVID- 19 yet, he says he doesn’t think it will be nearly as bad as last year.
“There will be a noticeable uptick of patients in the hospital, but I don’t think it will be anywhere near as the level it was last year,” said Blake, who has his Ph.D. from the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine.
While it may not be the same level, he thinks it’s almost certain for people who are not protected by the vaccine that they will have a very high chance to get COVID-19 in the winter.
“COVID is so transmissible now it is approaching the level of the mumps or maybe two-thirds of the level of contagiousness as the measles, and that means people who are not protected are almost certain to get COVID this winter,” said Blake. “My real hope is that there will be enough of a vaccine drive for all the people who don’t have vaccination or prior infection would go get a vaccine so we can put it all 100 percent behind us.”
Blake wrote on Facebook recently that prior infection is “really protective, close to as protective as the best vaccines.” He said those who have already had COVID-19 should be “considered as safe as people who were vaccinated.”
The AU professor urges anybody who has not been vaccinated to get one of the available vaccines.
“If you did not catch COVID and are unvaccinated, please protect yourself and get vaccinated,” Blake wrote. “It will be much better for you than catching COVID.”
AU Health has administered nearly 71,000 vaccines. You can sign up to get the vaccine at the following URL: https://covid.augustahealth.org/vaccine/.
Blake does predict an increase in cases next winter.
“The virus has mutated, and new variants are much more transmissible,” he wrote. “It does not appear the United States can reach herd immunity through vaccination unless we really reach everyone (I don't think we can, practically, vaccinate 80 percent of the population). The end result of this consideration is that there will be a lot of sick people this winter, and almost all of them will be those unvaccinated and without prior infection.”
Contact Chris Rickerson at crickerson@augusta.edu.
Professor David Blake of Augusta University.
