Trump wins: Understanding the election outcome

By CM Wahl // Managing Editor

America has elected a new president. On Nov. 4, Donald J. Trump won the majority vote in 30 states, garnering a total of 312 electoral votes, according to the Associated Press. Though Trump led the Republican party to victory by nearly three million votes, for some, the change in leadership came as a surprise.

Professor of Political Science Craig Albert said, “I think, unfortunately, many folks let their hope that now President-Elect Trump would not win, cloud their forecasting and realistic outcome. If one followed the polls carefully, it was clear that the two candidates were, for a majority of the race, within the margin of error.”

Albert is the graduate director for the doctorate in Intelligence, Defense and Cybersecurity Policy and master of arts in Intelligence and Security Studies here at AU. He stated that many people who voted for Trump may not admit it due to fear of backlash from the political left.

“Would you admit,” said Albert, “that you are voting for someone if you knew most of your friends would disown you or chastise you because of this?”

Albert stated that what we need now is a “return to civility on both sides” so the focus can move to policy, and that the election outcome was ultimately about the economy.

Gregg Murray, political science professor and editor-in-chief of Politics and the Life Sciences journal, agreed that the top issue for many voters this year was the economy and that inflation was among the most important economic metrics.

“In my opinion,” said Murray, “the Republicans won the election because the Democratic candidate [Kamala Harris] failed to distance herself from the Democratic president who had very low favorability ratings and was strongly associated, rightly or wrongly, with alarmingly high inflation.”

According to U.S. News and World Report, President Joe Biden’s approval rating fell to just 39 percent after inflation reached a 40-year-high in 2022, which lowered overall consumer sentiment. The news outlet stated that every president “back to Richard Nixon” who ran for reelection only won if they had an approval rating of at least 50 percent.

Although it is not yet clear on how the leadership shift will impact current inflation rates, Albert stated that under President-Elect Trump, several changes are likely, such as more decisions given to states and localities rather than the national government, more conservatives installed in the court system, and a crackdown on illegal immigration.

Now that the House and Senate are majority Republican, Albert said that Congress and the President are likely to “present a united front” on many conservative issues that have not been passed in the last few years. He stated this “unified government,” where the President and Congress are all from one party, will “likely make the country tilt slightly to moderately more conservative on the political pendulum.”

Although some voters may be disappointed with the election outcome or fear what this change will mean for the country in the long run, Albert went on to remind those worried that in two years, the pendulum can shift again as elections for the House will come up again, as it also will for one-third of the Senate.

“This is the beauty of a limited-federal-representative government,” said Albert. “It always shifts!”

He advised voters alike to stay calm and informed, to avoid getting information from social media and to be nice to everyone, “even and especially [to] those you disagree with.” He stated that no matter who controls the government, society will self-direct towards “a more perfect union.”

In the same vein, Murray stated that although politics can sometimes have a divisive nature, despite all the political spin, democracy is not coming to an end.

“Winners need to be good winners and losers need to be good losers,” he said. “Politics is no different.”

Contact CM Wahl at cwahl@augusta.edu.